5
Easter Bet
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 88
Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |