Oneofthegoodguys
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-02 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |