Rebel Invasion
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-11-08 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2024 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 02/08/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 23/08/2024 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 43% | -0.51 |
| 08/11/2024 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |