5
Here'syourtrouble
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 62
Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 14/03/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 09/04/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 15/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |