Lady Delilah

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 66

Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

28%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.6

Today:

Class gap: -0.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-17	Saratoga	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-20	Belmont At The Big A	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-05-14	Belmont At The Big A	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-04-24	Aqueduct	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-04-16	Aqueduct	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-03-29	Aqueduct	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 9

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▬

Strength16%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/01/2026	2nd	20/1	0%	86%	+0.86
18/01/2026	4th	5/1	74%	40%	-0.34
05/02/2026	5th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
29/03/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
16/04/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	60%	-0.28
24/04/2026	4th	10/1	47%	57%	+0.10
14/05/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
20/06/2026	7th	14/1	26%	14%	-0.12
17/07/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	75%	+0.75