Margarita Molly
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 64
Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-09-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |