Miss American Pie
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 65
Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 08/02/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/03/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 24/04/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 03/07/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 29/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 08/02/2026 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |