Mobelladream
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 74
Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | BHA76 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-01-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 10/11/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 18/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |