IvyArcIvyArc
6

Faithful Departed

3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 100

Saratoga · Race 10 - Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks - Grade 2 · 1m 1f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 19/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f Slo 11919/11C9C7 @ Fair Grounds 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 49 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 49 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 68 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 68 par18/01C7OR 68C5 @ Fair Grounds 07/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 77 parC0 @ Keeneland 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 91 par4/04C?OR 91C5 @ Churchill Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 96 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 1m1f Fm 118 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 101 par30/05C1OR 101C0 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 103 · 1m1f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 103 par4/07C?OR 103projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Saratoga?2nd2nd+0
2026-05-30Churchill Downs?1st1st−0
2026-04-26Churchill Downs?1st7th−5
2026-04-04Keeneland?6th6th0
2026-03-07Fair Grounds?2nd7th−4
2026-01-18Fair Grounds?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/117/0330/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength92%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20257th20/10%25%+0.25
26/12/20254th40/10%67%+0.67
18/01/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
07/03/20262nd20/10%86%+0.86
04/04/20266th33/10%44%+0.44
26/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
30/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
04/07/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15