2
Fitz Right
3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 94
Saratoga · Race 10 - Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks - Grade 2 · 1m 1f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-01-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-09-21 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |