6
Baby Sassicaia
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Saratoga · Race 11 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |