3
Carolina Smokeshow
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 79
Saratoga · Race 11 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-31 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 11/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 30% | -0.57 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |