10
Despo's Dream
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 90
Saratoga · Race 11 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 13/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |