4
Mischievous Trick
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 76
Saratoga · Race 11 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 21/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |