1
Moon Gate
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 78
Saratoga · Race 11 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 86% | -0.12 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |