8
Mursal
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 88
Saratoga · Race 11 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |