Lake Ariel
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68
Saratoga · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |