Midtown Mischief

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 76

Saratoga · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-23	Saratoga	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-21	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2025-08-20	Saratoga	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 12

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength68%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/08/2025	3rd	9/2	76%	78%	+0.01
21/06/2026	5th	5/2	87%	64%	-0.23
23/07/2026	3rd	2/1	89%	80%	-0.09