IvyArcIvyArc
8

Ticket To Ride

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66

Saratoga · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saratoga 05/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS5/06C5C6 @ Saratoga 17/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Saratoga 20/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 49 · 5f110y Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 49 par20/08C6OR 49C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 48 · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 48 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 05/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 62 · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 62 par5/10C6OR 62C7 @ Gulfstream 15/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 62 · 5f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/01/2026 · OR 62 parC6 @ Aqueduct 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 71 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 71 par16/04C6OR 71C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 13/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m 120 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 78 parC9 @ Saratoga 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 69 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 69 par19/07C9OR 69projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-06-13Belmont At The Big A?10th10th0
2026-04-16Aqueduct?2nd-1th+3
2026-01-15Gulfstream?3rd1st+2
2025-10-05Belmont At The Big A?4th1st+3
2025-09-14Belmont At The Big A?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0614/0916/0419/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20255th20/10%0%0.00
17/07/20253rd10/147%75%+0.28
20/08/20258th9/488%22%-0.66
14/09/20254th7/282%50%-0.32
05/10/20254th11/271%73%+0.02
15/01/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01
16/04/20262nd3/184%90%+0.06
13/06/202610th3/184%0%-0.84
19/07/20265th4/179%64%-0.15