15
Big Frosty
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 87
Saratoga · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |