Long Pour
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 90
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |