4
Runaway Joke
5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 84
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-12-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2024 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/09/2024 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 13/11/2024 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 01/12/2024 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/07/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 2/7 | 99% | 0% | -0.98 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |