5
American Grant
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 91
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 29/06/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |