7
Antietam
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 80
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-10-23 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 20/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 04/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |