4
Ez Roll
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |