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Fateful Lightning

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 87

Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 1f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Saratoga 26/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark26/07/2025 · OR 95 par26/07C9OR 95C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 93 parC9 @ Aqueduct 23/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 91 · 7f 122 · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 91 par23/11C9OR 91C6 @ Aqueduct 28/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 92 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 92 parC6 @ Aqueduct 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 7f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 90 par8/03C6OR 90C6 @ Aqueduct 12/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 90 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 90 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 90 par17/05C9OR 90C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 87 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 1m 126 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 85 par26/06C9OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Belmont At The Big A?1st3rd−2
2026-06-19Belmont At The Big A?6th5th+1
2026-05-17Belmont At The Big A?2nd4th−2
2026-04-12Aqueduct?4th3rd+1
2026-03-08Aqueduct?2nd1st+1
2025-12-28Aqueduct?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0728/1217/0526/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20254th5/287%63%-0.24
20/09/20256th25/10%38%+0.38
23/11/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
28/12/20253rd33/10%67%+0.67
08/03/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
12/04/20264th9/276%25%-0.51
17/05/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
19/06/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
26/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53