1
Papa Yo
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 92
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 23/10/2025 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 16/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |