Bridle A Butterfly
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 95
Saratoga · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 0th | +6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 06/06/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 24/04/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |