10
Math Tutor
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 80
Saratoga · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Keeneland | ? | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/10/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 03/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |