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New York Scrappy

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 90

Saratoga · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Aqueduct 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 87 · 6f 123 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 87 par18/01C8OR 87C7 @ Aqueduct 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Aqueduct 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 6f Slo 123 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 83 par26/02C8OR 83C7 @ Aqueduct 12/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Slo 123 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 85 parC7 @ Aqueduct 02/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 7f 126 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 81 par2/04C7OR 81C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 7f Slo 126 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 84 parC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 7f 126 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 85 par17/05C7OR 85C5 @ Saratoga 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 89 parC6 @ Saratoga 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 89 · 6f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 89 par10/07C6OR 89projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-06-07Saratoga?1st-1th+2
2026-05-17Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2026-04-30Belmont At The Big A?2nd2nd0
2026-04-02Aqueduct?2nd2nd0
2026-03-12Aqueduct?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0112/0317/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/01/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
19/02/20266th5/287%17%-0.70
26/02/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
12/03/20266th10/382%17%-0.66
02/04/20262nd6/594%80%-0.14
30/04/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
17/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
07/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
10/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32