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2

Projectability

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85

Saratoga · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 07/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m 1217/12C9C9 @ Aqueduct 04/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m 122 · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 78 parC9 @ Aqueduct 05/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 6f 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 73 par5/02C9OR 73C9 @ Aqueduct 01/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 76 parC9 @ Aqueduct 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 72 par22/03C9OR 72C7 @ Aqueduct 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 77 · 6f 126 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 80 par15/05C5OR 80C6 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 83 parC6 @ Saratoga 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 5f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 82 par17/07C6OR 82projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Saratoga?4th3rd+1
2026-06-05Saratoga?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-15Belmont At The Big A?1st-1th+2
2026-04-12Aqueduct?1st1st0
2026-03-22Aqueduct?1st3rd−2
2026-03-01Aqueduct?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/121/0315/0517/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/12/20255th15/261%43%-0.18
04/01/20264th13/891%50%-0.41
05/02/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
01/03/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
22/03/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
12/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
05/06/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
17/07/20264th14/126%57%+0.31