6
Jake's Orchard
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 68
Saratoga · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength96%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 28/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |