Mirage
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 78
Saratoga · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/03/2024 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |