1
Monte Avi
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 62
Saratoga · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-12-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 23/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 22/03/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |