2
Raging Sea Captain
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 67
Saratoga · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |