6
Arizona Territory
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 100
Saratoga · Race 9 - National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 12th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |