Bottas
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 104
Saratoga · Race 9 - National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |