4
Third Coast
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 97
Saratoga · Race 9 - National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲5
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -4.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | BHA96 | 1st | 12th | −9 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |