1
Touch Of Fire
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 105
Saratoga · Race 9 - National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
80%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲4
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |