3
Vasy
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 101
Saratoga · Race 9 - National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲4
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 12th | −6 |
| 2025-10-12 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 73% | -0.19 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 64% | -0.31 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |