1

Drish Samphire

4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 45

Thirsk · goracing.co.uk Future Stars Apprentice Classified Stakes · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Timeform

Commentary

Well beaten 2 of 3 starts since returning from a long absence, latterly in similar company at Newcastle last week.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.6
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Sligo 07/08/2024 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f160y Yie 1207/08C8C8 @ Cork 16/08/2024 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 5f Goo 128C8 @ Tipperary 01/09/2024 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f110y Goo 1201/09C8BHA54 @ Navan 09/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 54 · 5f180y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2024 · OR 54 parBHA51 @ Dundalk 06/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 51 · 6f Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/11/2024 · OR 51 par6/1151OR 51BHA48 @ Dundalk 10/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 48 · 6f Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/01/2025 · OR 48 par6 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 40 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 40 par18/066OR 406 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 40 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 40 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 46 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 46 par31/076OR 46projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Newcastle66th6th0
2026-07-14Leicester66th6th0
2026-06-18Southwell67th7th0
2025-01-10DundalkBHA488th7th+1
2024-11-06DundalkBHA519th8th+1
2024-10-09NavanBHA545th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/089/1018/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength57%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/202411th50/10%0%0.00
16/08/202413th150/10%8%+0.08
01/09/202412th200/10%8%+0.08
09/10/20245th40/10%43%+0.43
06/11/20249th22/10%38%+0.38
10/01/20258th50/10%0%0.00
18/06/20267th28/10%33%+0.33
14/07/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
31/07/20266th50/10%58%+0.58