3
Hurstwood
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 47
Thirsk · goracing.co.uk Future Stars Apprentice Classified Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Doncaster | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Redcar | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 04/11/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/07/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 41% | -0.22 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |