3
My Maria
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 71
Thirsk · Bob Vickery Memorial Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
70%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |