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Bymiddaytomorrow

2yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 72

Thirsk · Peter Bell Memorial Fillies' Nursery · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

90,000 gns Mehmas filly. Benefitted from her sights being lowered and a longer trip when off the mark by 1½ lengths at Ayr (7f) last time. Now switched to a nursery and is weighted to be firmly in the mix under a 6-lb penalty (good-value claimer takes over).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0534 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0644 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/0743 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 7f50y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 72 par27/073OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr31st-1th+2
2026-07-02Newbury48th7th+1
2026-06-08Windsor45th4th+1
2026-05-04Windsor36th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/058/062/0727/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20266th20/10%0%0.00
08/06/20265th5/174%56%-0.18
02/07/20268th28/10%42%+0.42
27/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12