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Gerry's Darling

2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 65

Thirsk · Peter Bell Memorial Fillies' Nursery · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

82%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improving Palace Pier filly. Made all to capitalise on a good opportunity in decisive fashion at Musselburgh 7 days ago. Looks capable of defying a 6-lb penalty on nursery bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength89%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 7f6y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS20/0622 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f6y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0724 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0744 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 65 · 7f15y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 65 par31/074OR 65projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Musselburgh41st0th+1
2026-07-19Redcar42nd1st+1
2026-07-09Doncaster27th3rd+3
2026-06-20Doncaster28th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/069/0719/0731/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20268th28/10%42%+0.42
09/07/20267th80/10%0%0.00
19/07/20262nd18/15%92%+0.86
31/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07