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Military Girl

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 72

Thirsk · Ladies' Day Saturday 5th September - Book Now Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a double in determined fashion over C&D in early-June. Only beaten 1 length in her hat-trick bid here later that month (form worked out well) and entitled to run a big race if returning from 7 weeks off in similar heart.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 08/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 72 par8/085OR 725 @ Catterick 09/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 71 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Hamilton 22/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 5f7y Sft 135 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 70 par22/095OR 705 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 5f Sft 128 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 68 par28/105OR 685 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 66 · 5f3y Goo 131 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 5f GF 131 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 65 par20/055OR 655 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 5f Gd 142 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 72 par16/065OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-16Thirsk52nd2nd0
2026-06-05Thirsk51st1st0
2026-05-20Ayr51st1st0
2026-04-21Pontefract53rd3rd0
2025-10-28Leicester54th4th0
2025-10-17Redcar54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0817/1020/0516/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength86%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20255th14/126%56%+0.29
09/09/20255th22/10%67%+0.67
22/09/20255th12/137%43%+0.06
17/10/20254th11/142%70%+0.28
28/10/20254th16/116%63%+0.47
21/04/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
20/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
05/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
16/06/20262nd9/488%89%+0.01