5
Qila
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 71
Thirsk · Ladies' Day Saturday 5th September - Book Now Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 09/06/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 10% | -0.45 |