4
Vince L'Amour
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 71
Thirsk · Ladies' Day Saturday 5th September - Book Now Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 2 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 3 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 31/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 17th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |