1
Master Vintner
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 91
Thirsk · William Hill, Market Place, Thirsk Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 8y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-02 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 08/11/2025 | 13th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |