4
Sudu
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 85
Thirsk · William Hill, Market Place, Thirsk Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 8y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-30 | Goodwood | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-07-02 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2024-12-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2024-10-25 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 03/12/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 22/02/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 12/06/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 02/07/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 30/07/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |